Although we're starting to see an uphill climb through 2010, the latest forecast from the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) sees economic growth slowing in 2011.
So how does this translate into the UK labour market? Well, unemployment figures were 7.7% (2.5 million unemployed) which interestingly compares to 11.9% in the 1980s and 10.7% in the 1990s. Even in the booming 2007 (the most recent busiest and profitable time for the recruitment industry), unemployment was 5.3%.
Real Job Creation There is a general concensus in the recruitment industry that real job creation does not occur until the GDP is above 2.5-3% and this is not forecasted to happen until 2012. The latest GDP figure is just 0.7% (from the Office for National Statistics)
Jobless Recovery The REC believe the recovery following this recession has been different for two main reasons;
Employers have hung onto their talent and found other ways to reduce their people based costs. For example; reduced overtime; short time working; pay freezes and no bonuses; and sabbaticals Continued use of flexible resources Which is the use of the temporary, interim and contract workers which accounts for 5% of the UK workforce(around 1.2M)
There is also the reduced productivity in the UK - the lowest for 10 years - which has meant there is spare capacity.
All this has led to reduced fluidity in the market - fluidity is the name given to people changing jobs and this recession has seen a great reduction in people changing jobs. The UK labour market needs people to change jobs in order to create a domino effect that kick starts a thriving recruitment market.
The good news is the REC believe we are starting to see some increase in fluidity.
The Employer View The REC also regularly surveys organisations to find out more about their views on the labour market, findings show that "confidence is increasing; recruitment freezes are being lifted and more hiring will happen in the next 3-12 months"
The UK recruitment industry are also feeling more confident with over 74% of those polled in the webinar saying they think the UK recruitment market is really starting to pick up.
Bouyant Sectors for 2011 The CEO of the REC shared his thoughts about the sectors he believes will be the most bouyant throughout 2011;
Technology - already seeing rapid growth in permanent and temporary hires
Financial Services - and the industries related to it i.e., insurance etc
Sustainable Energies
Oil and Gas - largely unaffected by the recession
Labour Trends There were also three points made about general trends in the labour marketplace which are also worth sharing with the UK project management marketplace;
Wealth created by intangibles
Organisations (70% of the Fortune 500) know their wealth and profitability is generated by their people and their brands. Although 75% of CEOs surveyed by Monster.com believe that attracting the right talent to their organisations is getting more difficult.
Shift to freelance working
A poll of 16-25 year olds showed that 86% of them think they will be working on a freelance or self employed capacity when they enter the workforce. The benefits of managing their own careers is seen as one of the main attractions.
Social media is growing as a method for job searching
What will be interesting to see is how organisations respond to this relatively new method in their quest to attracting the right talent.
Project Management Labour Trends Arras People are busy behind the scenes carrying out the current Project Management Benchmark Report for 2011 which features current project management labour trends.
If you're interested in seeing this information interimsmanager gesucht in early February 2011, take part in the survey (takes about 8 minutes) and you will receive the full report. The full report will be unavailable until mid 2011 for those choosing not to take part.
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